Friday, December 21, 2012

Just for the record: Federal spending

Sorry for the small font on this -- the table is from here if you want to see original.  I added the last line, percent growth year on year.

Three main points to note:  First, the 18% increase in total federal outlays from 2008 to 2009, on top of a 9% increase 2007 to 2008, both of which were stimulus to a great extent.  Second, since then, there is only one year when nominal spending went down, by 2% from 2009 to 2010.  And third, overall between 2007 and 2012, nominal Federal outlays are up 39%.

In previous posts, I noted my fear that stimulus spending would become permanent.  Here is a quick graph of the outlays from 2007-12.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

6042This is the kind of analysis that makes me wonder about academics.

Your graph lumps all kinds of spending together. The spending you are thinking might become permanent is discretionary non-military spending, but your graph includes everything domestic, military, and non-discretionary. In 2012, that was about $40B over the 2008 level. That is a 2.4% annualized increase per year – a very modest level of growth. In real dollars, discretionary non-defense spending in 2013 will be almost identical to 2008 ($472B vs 468 B). So much for your permanent spending increase! Indeed, spending controls are even better than this picture suggests because the biggest increase is spending for military veterans – something that is only tenuously “discretionary”. Without that cost, discretionary spending in real dollars is falling.

Almost all of the changes you report in your graph are from increased costs from entitlements and military operations – basically the costs from the Bush recession and wars.

In short, your original prediction is now shown to be wrong and your current analysis is shown to be biased and faulty.

Crowing that “I told you so” requires some confirmation – unless you are looking for a seat on Hannity.