Monday, September 22, 2008

Beware the Oil Price Data

From what I can tell, the massive increase in oil prices today -- around $25 -- is not really an increase in a meaningful price. The price increase was for the contract that was expiring, I assume the September or October contract. The next-in-line contract is not trading nearly as high.

It appears that some folks had very large short positions in that contract and had to buy to cover their shorts.

Some reporters are being careful to report the difference in price between the monthly contracts, others are not.

That by itself though is somewhat strange. Short squeezes do not happen often in large, liquid markets.

Sanity is indeed taking a vacation in some parts.

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