Thursday, January 10, 2008

New Hampshire Machine Count Bias?

There has been some discussion about the difference in Hillary Clinton's vote in New Hampshire with machine counted votes versus hand counted votes -- see here. Overall, Hillary got 39.0% of the NH vote. But she received 40.1% of the machine counted vote and only 34.7% of the hand counted vote.

When my son first showed me this, I jumped to the obvious conclusion that towns in NH that have machines counting the votes are different from town that count by hand. A classic statistical problem: correlation does not prove causation, and the old omitted variables problem. Hillary probably does better with voters who live in towns that count votes by machine. If you look at the data, it appears that "machine count" is the variable determining the Hillary vote, when in fact it is an underlying variable -- wealth, race, educational levels -- that really determines the vote difference, and that we are not measuring. So "machine count" is simply "picking up" the effect of the variable(s) omitted from the analysis.

Ah, the wonders of technology. My son showed me a website that did some analysis by town size. Sure enough, Hillary does better in large towns, and large towns tend to do more machine counting. So, it appears that the relationship between Hillary's vote and METHOD (the vote counting method) is just picking up the underlying relationship between Hillary's vote and TOWN SIZE. TOWN SIZE itself is a proxy for things such as wealth, education, etc.

Even more wonders of technology. I had my son collect the voting data on the 220 towns of NH. Using PERL, he downloaded the data to Excel for me to use in about 15 minutes. So I had four variables on each town in NH: TOTAL VOTE (a measure of town size), CLINTON PERCENT, OBAMA PERCENT, and METHOD (1 for MACHINE COUNT, 0 for HAND COUNT).

I quickly ran a univariate regression of CLINTON PERCENT on METHOD: Sure enough, the regression equation is

CLINTON PERCENT = 33.68 + 5.64 METHOD

with a standard error of 1.01 on METHOD (t-statistic of 5.58).

That fits with the univariate analysis of the data as presented earlier. Sure enough, Hillary seems to do better when the vote is counted by machine!

I was sure that when I added TOTAL VOTE to the regression, the coefficient on METHOD would drop in size and in statistical significance. This does not HAVE to happen with correlated variables such as METHOD and TOTAL VOTE, but I was pretty sure it would.

Here are the multiple regression results:

CLINTON PERCENT = 33.56 +5.08 METHOD + .00028 TOTAL VOTE

with a standard error on METHOD of 1.12 and on TOTAL VOTE of .00024.

Amazing! METHOD continues to be the variable carrying the weight of the data. Town size is statistically insignificant and the method of counting accounts for most of the variation in Clinton's vote difference.

Hmmm.....developing....


UPDATE: I highly suspect, still, that METHOD is simply correlated with some underlying real determinant of the Clinton vote. If I can get more data by town, I will run those models. It is even possible that my variable TOTAL VOTE is not a good measure of town size, as it involves voter turnout as well. What would be really good is if I had exit polling data by town in NH. If I added that variable to the equation, I would think that METHOD will lose significance.

UPDATE2: I got town population data, estimated for 2006. Using that instead of TOTAL VOTE reduces the size of the METHOD variable but not by much and it is still significant. I also calculated a new variable, total vote divided by population, which is an attempt to get at a few things related to turnout and other demographics. Using this new variable in addition to popluation reduces the size of the METHOD variable a bit more, but it is still highly significant. This new variable of vote divided by population seems to be important. I think if I got better demographic data -- age and gender, income, turnout -- the METHOD variable would lose more of its significance. It must be picking up something. If somebody has good NH town data in Excel or easily parsed, let me know the source.

The other thing to note is that in the data on votes by machine vs. hand, Romney also has big differences. That would, I think, support the "underlying demographics" theory.

UPDATE3: And just for the record, I do not believe whatsoever that anything untoward or suspicious happened in the NH election. This is simply a great exercise in statistical analysis, a great example of the problem that omitted variables cause in regression analysis.

37 comments:

Anonymous said...

So for all the conspiracy theorists out there, is this an attempt by one political camp to get a leg up on another by: a)diddling with the machine hoping no one will catch it so as to get more total votes, or b) diddling with the machine actually hoping someone WILL catch it so as to implicate their opposition?

Catherine said...

I have been doing the same analysis with the same results, except I have far more demographic variables for each precinct, including education (% holding bA's and % holding high school diplomas), median income, median age, down to ridiculous specificity like whether they're on municipal water supply.

In your analysis try including obama's votes as a predictor of clinton's votes, and then look at the interaction term with the diebold variable. You may also want to look at quadratic effects of obama's votes, and the interaction of that with the diebold var. The logic: if someone wanted to make sure hillary won, they might target machines in those districts where obama was stronger than average (or they may have been somewhat more clever, which is what my analysis of the quadratic interaction term suggests).

Email me for the data file chris_chatham~~~AT~~~hotmail.com (I'm using my wife's blogger acct).

John said...

"The other thing to note is that in the data on votes by machine vs. hand, Romney also has big differences. That would, I think, support the "underlying demographics" theory.

Given the amount of work by Election Defense Alliance and others showing significant statistical anomalies in elections since the time computers became widely involved with election tallying, won't you consider that something may have gone awry in the New Hampshire Republican race as well?

In another post you say:

Of course, since there will be a recount, any claims of irregularities will be quickly dispensed with.

The claims may be quickly dispensed with since that is in the best interest of NH officials and politicians in general, but an uneventful recount doesn't preclude foul play. It's not impossible for government to be behind election fraud, nor for recounts to be tampered with, especially where there is a weak chain of ballot custody.

Ben said...

Occam's razor would suggest that there is no demographic explantion for it, that the machines were rigged. Especially when you look at the pre-election polls that heavily favored Obama, the previous corruption involving machines produced by the same company, the shoddy procedures used by officials of the company that counted the votes, the convicted felons who were helping count the votes and on and on. Unfortunately, with no transparent chain of custody for the paper ballots, no anomolies doesn't prove no fraud.

Anonymous said...

I've been making this point since the primary results came in: even if the Diebold results are verified in the hand-recount, New Hampshire's lax same-day registration requirements (see http://www.democracyfornewhampshire.com/node/view/3016) make it possible for out-of-staters to drive into New Hampshire, vote, and drive back to their home state. Yes, identification is requested at the polls, but it is not required to submit a vote. Votes submitted without an ID are followed up on weeks after the polls close (if ever), but because the results are reported the same day to CNN, ABC, and all the rest, the momentum of the campaigns has already been affected and the damage to the election has been done.

It is entirely possible that the New Hampshire primary was decided by over-zealous out-of-staters who decided to give their chosen candidate a little bump. If you examine the disctricts that defied the poll expectations, they were all in the southern part of the state, right along I-93. Easy in, easy out.

The legality of these votes that the electronic scanning machines are counting (or not counting) need to be verified before we simply recount all the possibly illegal ballots cast.

JiPe said...

Hi, I'd like to do some analysis myself, could you send me your dataset? I'd like to run a MANOVA to see if their is no interaction effect, it is indeed possible that every single factor has insignificant effects, but that their is a significant interaction effect...

jms said...

Here's what I'd like to see. I'd like to see the election commission take an actual voting machine, load it with a copy of the actual software used in the NH primary, and feed a thousand or so sample ballots through it and see if they are counted accurately.

Joshua Fitt said...

Anonymous said:
"So for all the conspiracy theorists out there, is this an attempt by one political camp to get a leg up on another by: a)diddling with the machine hoping no one will catch it so as to get more total votes, or b) diddling with the machine actually hoping someone WILL catch it so as to implicate their opposition?"

My understanding (and please correct me if I am wrong) is that it has been demonstrated that the Diebold products can be "diddled with" without leaving a trace. Imagine for a moment a valid, public chain of custody involving physical, paper ballots in a box with a physical seal (imagine that the seal is red sealing wax). In such an imagined circumstance, a scientific, physical examination of the seal would indicate whether the seal had been tampered with; because of the public chain of custody it probably would not be tampered with. But the point is you could tell.
But the point is that with the Diebold machines you can diddle and there is no way to tell whether you diddled or not.
So it is important to recall then that there are two things in question: First, accuracy. Of course, we want to know whether the publically released tallies match the actual votes cast. But don't forge that we also have to consider the question of validity. If it can be shown that the electronic record can be changed without being detected and/or that the chain of custody has holes in it that you can drive a truck through, then the election is not valid because there is no way to demonstrate that the outcome truly reflects the ballots cast.
Of course, these two concerns interact: We worry about ballot integrity and the chain of custody precisely because if they are lacking, someone has an opportunity to diddle.
But, in theory, you could have a perfectly (and I do mean perfectly) accurate tally but an invalid election because the integrity of the ballots and the chain of custody are fatally compromised: "Candidate X did win. She (or he) got the most votes. But we have no way of showing you how we know this. Just trust us."

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